In an uncertain environment, it is important to investigate whether to postpone, abandon or immediately invest in photovoltaic (PV) projects. This paper applies a real options model to explore the optimal investment decision for investors and the government's optimal incentive strategy in China's distributed PV market.
The uncertainties of FIT and investment costs are regarded as critical factors affecting the options value and the investment-opportunity value of PV projects. According to the proposed model, three types of subsidy durations are carefully discussed in the free and regulated markets. Three main conclusions are drawn as follows.
In order to gradually deregulation and ensure the profitability of PV projects, the government, as the regulator of market prices, sets a reasonable lower limit of the PV FIT in a regulated market. In a regulated market, FIT is defined as follows:
It can be seen that investors in regions with abundant solar radiation resources are more willing to invest in PV projects without policy support. The development of PV technology can reduce investors' dependence on government policies.
In an uncertain environment, it is important to investigate whether to postpone, abandon or immediately invest in photovoltaic (PV) projects. This paper applies a real options model to
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